AAPL
Illustrative
Period 2008 to 2009
Context Global Financial Crisis drawdown
Signal Price approached 200-week SMA
Long-horizon investors used the level as a structured review point while fundamentals stayed durable.
The 200-Week SMA Strategy
Buy Quality.
Enter with Discipline.
Stop guessing. Munger Monitor alerts you when high-quality stocks hit their 200-week moving average. The only signal that matters for long-term compounding.
The Signal Price touches 200W SMA
The Goal Asymmetric Upside
The Edge Patience & Quality
Live Signals
NVDA Below 200W -12% (2022 Low)
AAPL Near 200W +1.2% (2009 Low)
COST Retest +0.5% (Buy Zone)
CHARLIE MUNGER PRINCIPLE
"Buy high-quality stocks on the 200-week moving average."
A widely cited Charlie Munger line in financial media coverage
This is the core idea behind Munger Monitor. We track the 200-week moving average so you can wait for disciplined entry zones instead of chasing headlines.
Munger Monitor is an independent product and is not affiliated with Charlie Munger or Berkshire Hathaway.
What the 200W is
Four-year trend anchor
The 200-week moving average is the mean of the last 200 weekly closes. It highlights the long-term trend.
Why investors use it
Fewer false signals
Weekly data cuts day-to-day noise and supports patience, which is useful for long-horizon decisions.
Signal math
Distance to 200W
We compute (price - 200W) / 200W and classify each stock as below, near, or above.
THE SETUP
200-week moving average, one clear workflow.
The 200-week line is simple. Choose quality companies, wait for price to approach the line, then review fundamentals before you act.
01
Track quality names
Add liquid businesses with strong balance sheets and durable demand.
02
Wait for 200W proximity
Set a threshold around the 200-week line so you only review real setups.
03
Decide with context
Use earnings, cash flow, and valuation before entering. The signal starts the process.
Price vs 200W SMA Illustrative example
Price 200W SMA
Historical Setups. Clear Process.
These are educational examples of how investors use the 200-week line as a decision checkpoint, not a prediction tool.
MSFT
Illustrative
Period 2022
Context Rising-rate technology selloff
Signal Retest near 200-week SMA
The signal helped frame staged entries instead of reactive buying during volatility.
NVDA
Illustrative
Period 2022
Context Semiconductor bear cycle
Signal Deep pullback into 200-week zone
A weekly trend anchor reduced noise in a high-volatility name.
AMD
Illustrative
Period 2024 to 2025
Context AI cycle repricing
Signal Rare compression toward 200-week line
The setup highlighted timing discipline: review thesis first, then size entries with risk limits.
Examples are educational and not investment advice.
THE EDGE Simple rules.
Simple rules.
Consistent execution.
Complexity is the enemy of execution. Munger Monitor gives you a single, unbreakable rule to follow.
CALM Zero Anxiety
Never Miss the Bottom
Track long-term setup zones without watching charts all week. Alerts surface when review is actually needed.
FOCUS Signal Only
Filter out the Noise
The 200-week moving average filters out short-term volatility. Focus only on the long-term trend.
CLARITY 3-State System
Visual Discipline
Instant clarity on your watchlist. Green means opportunity, Yellow means patience, White means wait.
CONTEXT Data Driven
Historical Proof
Review prior 200-week touches to understand how rare a setup is before you size an entry.
COMMON QUESTIONS
FAQ
Why use the 200-week moving average?
It filters out short-term noise and reveals the true long-term trend. It's the institutional standard for 'fair value' in quality assets.
Do I need to check it every day?
No. The 200-week moving average is slow-moving. A weekly check is usually enough to catch major signals.
How often do signals happen?
Rarely. That is the point. High-quality assets don't go on sale often. When they do, you need to be ready to act efficiently.
What stocks should I track?
Focus on 'Liquid Leaders'—companies with strong moats, cash-rich balance sheets, and heavy institutional support. Avoid speculative junk.
DISCIPLINE, AUTOMATED
Be early, not noisy.
Get a clean signal when price approaches the 200-week line. Stop checking charts every day.
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Signals are informational only. Not financial advice.